Mancini Returns, the Olimpico Turns Its Back: Italy Falls to Belgium and the Crack of a Whole Cycle

Hook

Eleven at night in Busan, I sat before the screen and counted the empty seats at the Olimpico. 47,155 people inside a 70,000-seat stadium – nearly 23,000 seats left unfilled. But the number was not what made me pick up my pen. It was the timing of the first whistle: the 20th minute, with the score still 0-0. The Ulsan sunrise never lies, and neither does a crowd that whistles before the ball hits the net. It is not angry because of a defeat. It is angry because it has waited too long to still believe.

Belgium beat Italy 2-0 in the Nations League. A tidy result on the scoreboard. But the real story lies in the two goals conceded – both from counterattacks. And in Roberto Mancini's starting XI, where eight of eleven names had already stood on the pitch during the failed World Cup qualifying campaign.

Context

Roberto Mancini returns to the Italy bench at 61. He left the job in August 2026, and two weeks later signed a lucrative deal in Saudi football. Now he is back, with Italy having missed three consecutive World Cups – something never before seen from a four-time world champion.

Across the pitch stands a new Belgium under Mark van Bommel, taking charge of his first international match. Little experience, but also few tactical scars. And in van Bommel's hands is Kevin De Bruyne, the veteran winning his 125th cap.

Some phone calls last only three minutes, yet change an entire summer. This match was the same – 90 minutes that changed how a whole cycle is read. Because immediately after it, Italy travel to Türkiye on Monday, then to France on Friday. No time to rest, and even less time to dream.

Core

The first point I want to make clear: this was not a defeat from a lack of chances. It was a defeat because the defensive structure while in possession – what analysts call rest defense – collapsed.

The opening goal came from a transition. A debutant midfielder, Alessandro Romano, who had just switched international allegiance from Switzerland to Italy, misplaced a pass. The ball reached De Bruyne. De Bruyne moved it wide. Mika Godts, the new Paris Saint-Germain signing, cut inside, beat three defenders, and finished past Gianluigi Donnarumma from close range. A chain of lost individual duels, from overall pressing to the recovery speed of the back line. Gianluca Mancini was turned; Diego Coppola arrived late.

The second goal repeated the same wound. Dodi Lukébakio struck from outside the area while Sandro Tonali chased back in desperation. No screening midfielder at the moment of turnover. This is a systemic error, not an individual one.

Alessandro Bastoni's suspension – following a red card in the defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina – removed Italy's best left-sided build-up option. Coppola stepped in, but the balance had tilted. With Mancini habitually pushing full-backs high to dominate possession, both goals showed players caught upfield. This is the direct consequence of a philosophy that was not adjusted to the level of the back line.

Looking at the starting XI, what worried me most: eight of eleven players came from the failed qualifying campaign. The other two changes were not proactive choices – one was a suspension, the other a newly cap-tied debutant. A new cycle built on exactly the same cohort that failed is unlikely to produce new outcomes.

Had this been a match where Italy created chance after chance and lost to bad luck, I would not have written this piece. But two goals from the same counterattacking script show a repeatable error – and it will repeat without structural change.

Alessandro Calafiori, who left his mark with a post-match admission, said: "We left gaps and conceded two avoidable goals." This is the first signal that the diagnosis is shared internally. When a young defender publicly speaks of systemic error, it usually precedes personnel change or tactical simplification.

Belgium, meanwhile, showed the opposite. A new coach, an away win, a new scorer, and a young talent freshly installed at PSG immediately scoring his first international goal. Their talent supply chain is running smoothly, while Italy is still paying off a generation that has not been renewed.

Contrarian

People will say Mancini failed. I do not think so – not yet.

What stands out is not the 0-2 scoreline. It is that the stands turned at the 20th minute, with the match still level. That hostility is not result-dependent; it is the accumulation of three missed World Cups. It means Mancini cannot extinguish the anger with wins alone – he must shift belief, which is far slower.

That is also why the FIGC's re-appointment of a coach who left in 2026 carries high risk: they can no longer frame the change as a step forward. They can only say: we tried something else, and it did not work.

Son Heung-min was stoned by criticism in 2026, and I learned to judge people not through public opinion. For Romano, one mistake on debut could define an entire young international career. For Mancini, the next two away matches could define an entire tenure.

And this is the biggest blind spot of the official story: Mancini is being measured against the standard of 2026, when he won the Euros. But this squad no longer contains those players, and European football has moved on three years. Judging a coach by his own past peak is the fastest way to convict him – and the least fair.

Takeaway

Italy travel to Türkiye on Monday, then to France on Friday. Ten days to separate one bad night from a structural collapse. If the lineup still holds the same eight names, we will have the answer. If Italy lose both, the former-power status shifts from media narrative to ranking reality.

At 61, I still pick up the phone at 4 a.m. – because Ulsan does not call to say goodnight. And the Olimpico called tonight too, in its own way: with empty seats and whistles from the 20th minute.